Community Corner

NOAA: Active Hurricane Season Coming Up

National Weather Service prepares for what looks to be another dangerous hurricane season.

This article was posted by Joseph Pinciaro. It was written and reported by Scott Moore.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an extremely active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, an announcement that comes as many on Long Island are still recovering from devastation wrought by Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

NOAA's forecast for the six-month hurricane season, which starts June 1, calls for a 70 percent likelihood for 13 to 20 tropical storms this season, 7 to 11 hurricanes and 3 to 6 of those hurricanes reaching "major" status.

Tropical Storms are tropical cyclones with sustained core winds of 39 mph or higher. Hurricanes have interior sustained winds of 74 mph or higher and Major Hurricanes, which include Category Three status or higher, have sustained interior winds of 111 mph or higher.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."

The normal ranges for an Atlantic Hurricane season are 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

In October 2012, a monster-sized Hurricane Sandy smacked into the East Coast, causing destruction across much of the Atlantic region. On Long Island, the storm knocked out power to nearly 1 million electric customers, flooded homes in South Shore communities, tore breaches in barrier islands and toppled countless tress across the densely populated suburbia.

“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are prepared and ready ahead of time,” Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator, said in a statement. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first makes landfall.”

NOAA has made several changes and improvements over the nearly seven months since Hurricane Sandy, including new forecasting supercomputers and newer software for meteorologists. A new Hurricane Hunter aircraft-attached doppler radar will also allow for better real-time forecasting.

The National Weather Service has also changed the way it uses and issues warnings and advisories to better serve residents that could be outside the direct path of a storm. Hurricane Warnings will be allowed to remain up even if a storm goes "post-tropical," much like Sandy did.

The seasonal hurricane outlook is not a landfall forecast and NOAA said it will provide details, as it always does, on a case-by-case basis for every storm this year.


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